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Report on the Constitution Committee meeting : Brussels 29-30 September 2004
October 10, 2004 | Leave a Comment
Does the UK have a veto on the proposed EU constitution or not? According to the chairman of the Constitution Committee in Brussels recently, it does.
But – this is the Brussels world of Alice in Wonderland. We do – and we don’t!
According to the text of the treaty, the constitution will “enter into force� when “last member state has ratified� it.
My original question – you may recall – was what does “last� mean? Is it the last of all 25, or the last state willing to ratify – which could the 16th, or 20th, or any other number?
The answer was – then – categoric: Last of 25.
That appears to give us a veto…but does it?
With a veto, we might hold death of a European superstate in our hands. The Spanish socialist Carlos Carnero, also a member of the committee, told us: “without a constitution the EU would be reduced to a mere free trade area. The constitution builds on the momentum started at Maastricht� He and others like him are not prepared to lose this battle.
Which is why further digging has revealed that the veto is an illusion. The EU already anticipates the next move.
Under the amending procedure elsewhere in the treaty – which requires only that 20 member states have ratified – Article 48 of the consolidated treaties will be invoked. This gives the member states the right to propose amendments to the treaties and provides for a convention and subsequent ratification of any changes. So the idea of a unanimous vote on the proposed constitution is an illusion.
We have no effective veto, because the EU will simply make a few minor amendments to the text under Article 48 and ask us to vote again. Ad infinitum, presumably.
Both Denmark and Ireland have been put through this mincer in the past. The EU obviously expects that to be the fate of the British if we vote to reject the constitution in a referendum.
Given the level of opposition to the EU in the UK, the bureaucrats in Brussels seem blissfully unaware that this will be a recipe for civil unrest in the UK.
There is, however, another important conclusion to be drawn from this clarification.
The referendum campaign is virtually certain to be fought on the basis of ‘in or out?’
Tony Blair, or whoever is Labour prime minister of the day, will be under intolerable pressure from the EU to deliver a ‘yes’ vote. That means tremendous pressure to fudge the ratification process, which would be difficult but not impossible. There would also be tremendous pressure to fudge the referendum, which would be much easier – by manipulating the question, the funding and pushing the threats of “isolationâ€?.
For solid yes and no voters, all that will make no difference. But the referendum will be won and lost on the middle ground.
We will have to win over the hearts and minds of two generations of voters with no idea of world outside the EU and brainwashed by an education lacking any British constitutional history. They will need big reassurances on jobs – trade – prosperity – minimalist government, and the release of billions of pounds for tax cuts, better pensions, schools and hospitals, or whatever else we decide for ourselves.
The referendum will be about “in or out�, whether we like it or not.
The EU will see to it. And we must be ready.
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